Serenity 总结

北京时间：2026-05-27 21:01:22 CST

美西时间：2026-05-27 06:01:22 PST

美东时间：2026-05-27 09:01:22 EST

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原文记录

#1

北京时间：2026-05-26 22:08:42 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 07:08:42 PST
美东时间：2026-05-26 10:08:42 EST

How did my $NVTS position double already lol?

That aside, I did see a very compelling long out of the list of crowdsourced recs earlier for 800 vdc.

Doing more research now! https://t.co/Su65NuYjLW

#2

北京时间：2026-05-26 22:20:30 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 07:20:30 PST
美东时间：2026-05-26 10:20:30 EST

Swedens transferring control of $SIVE to the West + other countries…

Is honestly fun to watch in the charts. https://t.co/zNfWatAm4S

#3

北京时间：2026-05-26 22:28:43 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 07:28:43 PST
美东时间：2026-05-26 10:28:43 EST

Well $VPG ended up tripling since my thesis post.

I got the ASP wrong in my original thesis, was $150 mass production rather than ~$750 midpoint quoted by management.

And $TSLA design out risk made me cut concentration.

But 3x regardless not too shabby. https://t.co/ksB8ZrnnEg

#4

北京时间：2026-05-26 23:14:31 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 08:14:31 PST
美东时间：2026-05-26 11:14:31 EST

YTD: 4502.45%. https://t.co/rF2ACQDu8w

#5

北京时间：2026-05-27 00:10:22 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 09:10:22 PST
美东时间：2026-05-26 12:10:22 EST

This timeline of getting banned on $RDDT WSB for posting about $AXTI.

That stock going up thousands of percent.

Then becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X feels kinda like a Naruto redemption arc to become hokage.

Only 12k more to go. https://t.co/J8DNEbYXpl

#6

北京时间：2026-05-27 01:09:35 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 10:09:35 PST
美东时间：2026-05-26 13:09:35 EST

And now… $MU finally hits a $1 Trillion marketcap.

I did say this looks like the next $NVDA given how memory demand looks structural with AI.

This stock probably made a lot of millionaires going from $80 to $887. https://t.co/5VFdvcuu2c

#7

北京时间：2026-05-27 08:48:52 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 17:48:52 PST
美东时间：2026-05-26 20:48:52 EST

These titles keep getting more and more ridiculous lol https://t.co/f8t0ApHJPu

#8

北京时间：2026-05-27 10:24:10 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 19:24:10 PST
美东时间：2026-05-26 22:24:10 EST

There’s one very compelling name someone called out.

That I ended up taking positions in for power semi exposure.

Heavily tied to $NVDA but not directly mentioned like $NVTS.

Can anyone guess?

#9

北京时间：2026-05-27 11:24:17 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 20:24:17 PST
美东时间：2026-05-26 23:24:17 EST

FYI, EU Chips Act 2 is today, May 27th.

This one is expected to be targeted specially around photonics.

There happens to Europe’s leading photonics/laser company called $SIVE over in Sweden.

That also received US CHIPS act funding and is critical to Western supply chains. https://t.co/Ijhnp3wIoq

#10

北京时间：2026-05-27 11:38:00 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 20:38:00 PST
美东时间：2026-05-26 23:38:00 EST

Wow, 400,000 followers! Thank you everyone.

I find it fun to share ideas with everyone for free from $TSEM to $AAOI.

And especially if they end up directionally right + help others build their own conviction. https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq

#11

北京时间：2026-05-27 14:48:10 CST
美西时间：2026-05-26 23:48:10 PST
美东时间：2026-05-27 02:48:10 EST

I was wondering why there was an irrational amount of disinformation about $SIVE.

Turns out short sellers have been running bot farm campaigns to spread disinformation.

And likely through local news media too.

Hope they get blown apart on their short positions now. https://t.co/U3Euy391l8

#12

北京时间：2026-05-27 15:10:04 CST
美西时间：2026-05-27 00:10:04 PST
美东时间：2026-05-27 03:10:04 EST

This was the company i personally liked + have positions in.

Definitely not $DPZ.

But kinda me of Soitec in a way.

Power semi / SiPH exposure both to Nvidia ecosystems.

Photonics side eval through Nvidia right now. Power semi exposure through NVtS and powl, ~1.29 p/b, EU https://t.co/Tzo4DvoQhN

#13

北京时间：2026-05-27 15:29:00 CST
美西时间：2026-05-27 00:29:00 PST
美东时间：2026-05-27 03:29:00 EST

$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in.

Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players.

> 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI

> Silicon Photonics / CPO https://t.co/AZFFLbQk8O

#14

北京时间：2026-05-27 17:05:21 CST
美西时间：2026-05-27 02:05:21 PST
美东时间：2026-05-27 05:05:21 EST

Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2.

Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research!

Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql

#15

北京时间：2026-05-27 20:02:00 CST
美西时间：2026-05-27 05:02:00 PST
美东时间：2026-05-27 08:02:00 EST

Just a fun observation: the only people you see complaining about free research.

Typically have massive paywalls.

And get upset others are disrupting their business models.

I get tons of institutional/hedge fund offers.

But instead of doing things for institutions only or

AI 总结

核心总结

• 博主主要聚焦半导体领域，尤其是功率半导体、硅光子学（SiPH）和AI相关存储芯片。他看好欧洲半导体公司，认为 EU Chips Act 2 是重要政策催化剂。
• 他明确看多 $MU（达到万亿美元市值）、$SIVE（被空头攻击但仍持有）、$XFAB（新开仓位）、$NVTS（已翻倍）、$VPG（已涨三倍但ASP预测有误）、$SOI 以及功率半导体相关 $POWI。
• 他认为 $TSLA 的设计出局风险曾导致他减仓 $VPG。
• 多条帖子提及免费研究被付费墙干扰，以及他个人YTD收益率超过4500%（非投资建议）。

涉及标的与方向

• $NVTS：多头。仓位已翻倍（来自 crowdsourced 推荐），认为与Nvidia生态系统相关。未给出新目标价。
• $VPG：多头（但已部分减仓）。自他发布研究后股价涨三倍，但承认ASP预测有误（原以为量产中位价$750，实际$150）。$TSLA 设计出局风险导致他降低集中度。
• $MU：多头。达到1万亿美元市值，他认为这类似 $NVDA 的走势，AI驱动内存需求具有结构性。未提及具体仓位或目标。
• $SIVE：多头。瑞典光子公司，已获得美国芯片法案资金，是西方供应链关键。博主指出空头正通过机器人农场散布虚假信息，期待空头爆仓。EU Chips Act 2 有望提供额外资金。
• $XFAB：多头（新开仓位）。市值12.8亿美元，涉及功率半导体+硅光子学。催化剂：EU Chips Act 2 今日（5月27日）发布（后推迟）。通过 $NVTS 和 $POWI 间接暴露于Nvidia的800V DC功率半导体需求，同时涉足CPO（共封装光学）。
• $POWI：多头提及。作为功率半导体暴露于Nvidia生态，与 $XFAB 逻辑相关。
• $SOI：多头提及。类似 $SIVE 和 $XFAB 可能获得 EU Chips Act 2 资金。
• $TSEM、$AAOI：此前分享过，过去24小时未提及具体方向。
• $AXTI：过去曾强烈看多（股价涨数千百分比），过去24小时无新观点。
• $IQE：博主提到自己在该标的上没有仓位（“aside from $IQE”），暗示未持有。

催化剂与时间线

• 2026-05-27（今日）：EU Chips Act 2 原定发布，专门针对光子学。然而博主确认正式公告推迟至下周。
• 下周：预期 $SIVE、$SOI、$XFAB 可能获得 EU Chips Act 2 资金。
• 已发生：$MU 市值突破1万亿美元（2026-05-26）；$VPG 股价自博主发布研究后已涨三倍（未给具体日期）；$NVTS 仓位翻倍（具体时间未知）。

风险与不确定性

• $TSLA 设计出局风险：导致博主主动降低 $VPG 仓位集中度，但未说明具体影响程度。
• $VPG ASP预测偏差：实际量产ASP远低于管理层此前指引中位数，暗示盈利预期可能不及。
• $SIVE 被空头造谣：存在机器人农场散布虚假信息，可能影响短期价格波动。
• EU Chips Act 2 推迟：时间线延后，短期催化兑现推迟。
• $XFAB 估值：市净率约1.29，但属于小市值股票，波动性可能较大。

后续可跟踪事项

• EU Chips Act 2 正式公告（推迟至下周），关注是否明确提及 $SIVE、$SOI、$XFAB。
• $SIVE 股价与空头博弈：博主认为空头可能被爆仓，可观察后续走势及成交量。
• $XFAB 的Nvidia生态进展：功率半导体和硅光子学在Nvidia供应链中的评估结果。
• $MU 能否持续：AI内存需求是否继续推高股价，以及1万亿美元后是否有新催化。
• $VPG 是否继续上涨：尽管ASP有误，但股价已三倍，需观察后续季报是否验证增长。