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Serenity 总结

北京时间:2026-05-28 09:34:23 CST

美西时间:2026-05-27 18:34:23 PST

美东时间:2026-05-27 21:34:23 EST

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#1
北京时间:2026-05-27 10:24:10 CST
美西时间:2026-05-26 19:24:10 PST
美东时间:2026-05-26 22:24:10 EST
There’s one very compelling name someone called out.

That I ended up taking positions in for power semi exposure.

Heavily tied to $NVDA but not directly mentioned like $NVTS.

Can anyone guess?
#2
北京时间:2026-05-27 11:24:17 CST
美西时间:2026-05-26 20:24:17 PST
美东时间:2026-05-26 23:24:17 EST
FYI, EU Chips Act 2 is today, May 27th.

This one is expected to be targeted specially around photonics.

There happens to Europe’s leading photonics/laser company called $SIVE over in Sweden.

That also received US CHIPS act funding and is critical to Western supply chains. https://t.co/Ijhnp3wIoq
#3
北京时间:2026-05-27 11:38:00 CST
美西时间:2026-05-26 20:38:00 PST
美东时间:2026-05-26 23:38:00 EST
Wow, 400,000 followers! Thank you everyone.

I find it fun to share ideas with everyone for free from $TSEM to $AAOI.

And especially if they end up directionally right + help others build their own conviction. https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq
#4
北京时间:2026-05-27 14:48:10 CST
美西时间:2026-05-26 23:48:10 PST
美东时间:2026-05-27 02:48:10 EST
I was wondering why there was an irrational amount of disinformation about $SIVE.

Turns out short sellers have been running bot farm campaigns to spread disinformation.

And likely through local news media too.

Hope they get blown apart on their short positions now. https://t.co/U3Euy391l8
#5
北京时间:2026-05-27 15:10:04 CST
美西时间:2026-05-27 00:10:04 PST
美东时间:2026-05-27 03:10:04 EST
This was the company i personally liked + have positions in.

Definitely not $DPZ.

But kinda me of Soitec in a way.

Power semi / SiPH exposure both to Nvidia ecosystems.

Photonics side eval through Nvidia right now. Power semi exposure through NVtS and powl, ~1.29 p/b, EU https://t.co/Tzo4DvoQhN
#6
北京时间:2026-05-27 15:29:00 CST
美西时间:2026-05-27 00:29:00 PST
美东时间:2026-05-27 03:29:00 EST
$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in.

Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players.

> 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI

> Silicon Photonics / CPO https://t.co/AZFFLbQk8O
#7
北京时间:2026-05-27 17:05:21 CST
美西时间:2026-05-27 02:05:21 PST
美东时间:2026-05-27 05:05:21 EST
Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2.

Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research!

Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
#8
北京时间:2026-05-27 20:02:00 CST
美西时间:2026-05-27 05:02:00 PST
美东时间:2026-05-27 08:02:00 EST
Just a fun observation: the only people you see complaining about free research.

Typically have massive paywalls.

And get upset others are disrupting their business models.

I get tons of institutional/hedge fund offers.

But instead of doing things for institutions only or
#9
北京时间:2026-05-27 21:53:45 CST
美西时间:2026-05-27 06:53:45 PST
美东时间:2026-05-27 09:53:45 EST
Interesting photonics selloff today on no news?

$LITE down -4.95%
$AAOI down -4.85%
$SIVE down -14.8%
$SOI down -5.73%
$AXTI down -8.13%
$IQE down -12.13%

I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis).

Just tends to be very https://t.co/bWjGIak6OE
#10
北京时间:2026-05-27 22:41:38 CST
美西时间:2026-05-27 07:41:38 PST
美东时间:2026-05-27 10:41:38 EST
Back when $AAOI was ~$20-30 when I went long:

I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs.

Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible.

Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, $AXTI played out so https://t.co/sYkMfQfHa2
#11
北京时间:2026-05-28 00:35:33 CST
美西时间:2026-05-27 09:35:33 PST
美东时间:2026-05-27 12:35:33 EST
Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock?

Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time?

They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are.

And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low https://t.co/vj9FyoDeHO
#12
北京时间:2026-05-28 08:01:54 CST
美西时间:2026-05-27 17:01:54 PST
美东时间:2026-05-27 20:01:54 EST
Look who joined team $NBIS.

5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN.

That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year.

Weebius has plot armor. https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND
#13
北京时间:2026-05-28 09:13:45 CST
美西时间:2026-05-27 18:13:45 PST
美东时间:2026-05-27 21:13:45 EST
在 X 上看到这么多中文社区的支持,真的让人很开心!

这体现了种非常有趣的文化差异:

大家会试图了解我的思考过程和选股逻辑,并以此来完善自己的投资体系。

相比之下,其他些文化背景的人可能上来就会全盘否定。

也许我会为了好玩,开始写写对两支中国股票的看法,哪怕我并没有持仓。

AI 总结

核心总结

  • 博主重点聚焦光子学(Photonics)与功率半导体(Power Semiconductors),认为光子学是当前最具吸引力的主题,甚至超过功率半导体。
  • 核心标的为**$XFAB**(瑞典公司,光子学+功率半导体),博主已建立仓位,理由是:低市净率(约1.29倍PB)、获得EU CHIPS Act资助、被$NVDA和$NOK评估其硅光子(SiPH)能力,且与$NVDA生态紧密相关(通过$NVTS、$POWI获取800V直流功率半导体暴露)。
  • EU Chips Act 2(5月27日)被视作关键催化剂,但正式公告已推迟至下周。预计受益公司包括$SIVE、$SOI、$XFAB。
  • 当天光子学板块出现无消息普跌($SIVE -14.8%、$IQE -12.13%等),博主认为属于非理性下跌,坚持看好。
  • 另外提及$NBIS,博主去年做多后已涨约3倍,有人以5.6%持股加入,并批评$IREN为“垃圾堆”。
  • 最后,博主感谢中文社区,可能考虑发布对中国股票的看法(但未持仓)。

涉及标的与方向

  • $XFAB(光子学+功率半导体):多头,已建仓。理由:EU CHIPS Act资助、$NVDA/$NOK评估其SiPH、与$NVDA生态通过$NVTS/$POWI连接功率半导体、低市净率~1.29倍、市值12.8亿美元。风险:被媒体称为“meme股”,存在空头造谣。
  • $SIVE(瑞典光子学/激光公司):多头,博主持有(在$SIVE、$SOI、$XFAB均为多头,除$IQE外)。理由:EU Chips Act 2针对光子学,$SIVE是欧洲领先公司,且曾获得美国CHIPS法案资助。当天下跌-14.8%,博主认为空头通过机器人散布虚假信息。
  • $SOI(光子学):隐含多头,预期受益于EU Chips Act 2。
  • $IQE(光子学):隐含多头(但博主此前未把$IQE列入研究蓝图,当天下跌-12.13%)。
  • $LITE$AAOI$COHR$AXTI(光子学/光收发器):多头(此前做多$AAOI于$20-30区间,认为$AMZN/$MSFT的ASIC项目认证光学收发器)。当天均下跌4-8%,博主未改变观点。
  • $NBIS多头,已持有。去年做多后上涨约3倍,现获机构大额持股(5.6%),对比$IREN(负面)。
  • $IREN负面,博主称其为“垃圾堆”。
  • $DPZ非目标,博主明确排除(“Definitely not $DPZ”)。
  • $TSEM$AAOI:提及为过去分享过的成功标的。

催化剂与时间线

  • 2026-05-27:EU Chips Act 2原定公布,但官方已推迟至下周。该法案特别针对光子学,预计$SIVE、$SOI、$XFAB将获得资助。
  • 当前:$NVDA正在评估$XFAB的硅光子(SiPH)能力,$NOK也在评估;$XFAB已与$NVDA生态通过功率半导体芯片方案($NVTS、$POWI)建立联系。
  • 历史参考:$AAOI在$20-30时被博主做多,后续因$AMZN/$MSFT ASIC认证光学收发器而上涨。表明光子学主题有实际订单驱动潜力。

风险与不确定性

  • EU Chips Act 2公告推迟,具体资助金额和时间不确定。
  • 光子学板块当天无消息暴跌,存在市场情绪或空头打压风险。$SIVE单日跌14.8%,$IQE跌12.13%,板块整体走弱,可能影响短期持仓。
  • 空头活动:博主指出$SIVE存在机器人散布虚假信息,并怀疑当地媒体参与,空头压力可能持续。
  • $XFAB被媒体称为“meme股”,可能面临非理性波动,但其基本面(CHIPS法案资助、NVDA评估)被博主认为被低估。
  • $NBIS虽已涨3倍,但博主未提示新风险。

后续可跟踪事项

  • EU Chips Act 2正式公告(预计下周),关注$SIVE、$SOI、$XFAB具体资助金额及细节。
  • $XFAB与$NVDA/$NOK的硅光子评估进展,是否达成正式合作或认证。
  • 光子学板块后续走势,尤其是$SIVE、$SOI、$LITE等是否止跌反弹。
  • $NBIS后续是否继续获得大资金增持(已有5.6%持股)。
  • 博主可能发布对中国股票的看法(非持仓),留意是否有新标的讨论。